Scenario Analysis. What Is My Future?

Scenarios are description that is plausible of the future unfolding events based on the “if-then” propositions; there are normally key driving forces that that cause the initial situation to change to a future image that is the sequence of events that unfold. Scenarios are however not projections or predictions neither are they extrapolations. Scenario analysis on the other hand is a procedure for comparison and evaluation of scenario results in order to anticipate future development.

Scenario analysis for 20 years focusing on improvement of transactions

Driving forces

In this case study, I undertake a personal scenario analysis of my future 20 years.  Some of the specific life aspects considered as the 5 major driving factors is the career, family, and education and business, relatives and friends aspects of my life. The two major driving factors are career and family.  This two are chosen as the two major ones because this are the key driving uncertainties and form the main storyline of the scenario.

Developing scenarios

To develop these scenarios, there should be step-wise changes that show events that show the base year and horizons giving an explanation of the future situation and the driving forces or uncertainties of the scenario. This involves reducing the number of scenario to manageable number by eliminating mini-scenarios and combining others.  In this case the two main uncertainties are the career and family which give two possible values while each has four themes or commonly known as scenarios. Theme or scenario one is an optimistic scenario or a fair breeze. Theme two is a mixed scenario which is referred to as wind completes while theme/scenario three is also a mixed scenario called the wind the gaps and the fourth scenario is a pessimistic scenario or wind calmed scenario.

There are major advantages of having many scenarios which include representation of many future views and possibilities while having few scenarios on the contrary helps in giving proper communication of results on the same. It is however recommended for strategic studies that scenarios le limited to 2 to 4 in order to communicate effectively and due to limited resources. There is need to then write the full narrative of the full scenarios storylines. To do this, all mini-scenarios are elaborated step-by-step with the help of influence diagram as shown below. An anecdote that is stories are used to illustrate the main messages.

Whilst evidence can be classified in different ways, I suggest here that it is useful to make distinctions between research and experiential evidence in the first instance and then within research evidence to note that there are different research designs that affect the nature of evidence presented. It may seem contentious to think of experience as a form of evidence, but in practice it is frequently called upon as just that. At its weakest, groups of nurses develop a working impression of how patients cope, how care is delivered and what consequences emerge if nursing is delivered in particular ways. In my experience, nurses might refer to this as practice wisdom, a collective know how that seems to work well with given groups of patients. Such evidence provides at best a first impression, and overview of issues. It is enhanced where the nurse plans reflection and observation more carefully, with reference to particular questions and focusing perhaps on case studies that allow matters to be mapped and discussed.